Sunday, June 26, 2005

Bombs away!



Seeing as how I am too young to have been at any of the 72-74 World Series games, I can only say from personal experience that this was definitely the best game I had ever been too. The 17-th game of The Streak was nice but this had a certain aura, a certain sense of pride; in 2002, you had the seasoned vets, making the push for the division; this year, you have the rookies stepping up in a big way and you can see the future before your eyes. One would hoped that future does not include Ken Macha, but for today, that is a non-issue.

While pummelling Brett Bomb-ko is not uncommon, doing it in such a way that it embarrasses your cross-town rival (you should have heard the callers on KNBR!) makes it a pleasing event to see in person. There were tons of Giant fans in attendance and by the 5th inning they had departed. Oh how I wished I had a camera to show the humiliation on their faces.

Good times indeed...

The bad only gets worse

Ladies and Gentlemen, boys and girls, children of all ages... come see The P.T. Barnum Clown-Fielders!



When you are cut from the Milwaukee Brewers, Detroit Tigers, and Tampa Bay Devil Rays in a 2 year time period, you know something wrong with you. But when you get picked up by the lowly Giants, then there's something wrong with them.

Today's victory was fun-tacular as Haren pitched his second career complete game and Nick Swisher hit his first homer from the right side of the plate. And tomorrow's chances for a sweep look great with the Ace, Rich Harden on the hill. I will be in attendance tomorrow and I hope I can catch a homer for the first time.

Saturday, June 25, 2005

Lords of Illusion

If you move past the error by 4-time Gold-Glover Eric "I take pride in my defense" Chavez and the meatball thrown by Joe "Kentucky-fried" Blanton, last night game definitely had the aura of a playoff game.



For the majority of the night, Macha was not a numbskull; that quickly changed when Justin Duchscherer had a visit by pitching coach Curt Young. The problem here is that the Duke had just allowed to runners to get on base and now, Macha feels this is the most opportune time to mess with Duchscherer's rhythm. Apparently, the visit was to inform Justin to pitch around Tucker to get to the next batter, Pedro Feliz.

It is this type of mindless action that makes me question Macha as a manager. There should be a sign that, at the least, the catcher knows which lets him know that the pitcher should unintentionally-intentionally walk a batter. Had that been known, there would have been no need for Young to come out and bother the Duke. Once again, Macha was bailed out by a player, this time with Duke's rainbow curve to strikeout the over-eager Pedro Feliz

Thursday, June 23, 2005

"K" stands for KirK



9 innings, 7 k's... who would have ever thought that Saarloos had that in him? Frankly, I was hoping that Saarloos would start to turn the corner and pitch one more inning then his usual 5+, but this is completely unexpected.

While I don't think he will continue to pitch like this, there may be a change that helps Saarloos pitch deeper into games:

Saarloos, featuring a modified curve that Kendall went to again and again, was at his butt-kicking best in the finale of a four-game series at Safeco Field.


Saarloos said he'd been tinkering between starts with the grip on his curveball, which he said "has never been what you'd call a quality big-league pitch." The result is a harder-breaking pitch that helped snap his three-start, 17-inning streak without a strikeout.


Hopefully, Saarloos can give the A's some very nice pitching depth to make moves and/or alleviate the financial future of the team.

"It's torture... but I'm almost there..."
- The Cure

This was just a sad lost and it is almost as if the A's relive the same bad games over and over and over again, as the one had all of the classic elements: a close-pitched game followed by Zito pitching longer then he should, a blown save, extra-innings, and a bobble that leads to the losing run.

Macha was lucky that he failed to have a reliever up in the seventh as Zito was starting to close in on 94 pitches, the turn-key pitch where success or failure is derived. As seen in the updated Zito Pitch Frequency chart, Zito was having a tough time going through the 7th inning and he made it out with just the homer given up to Sexson. In that inning, he had made 25 pitches, 10 of which were Balls and 1 HBP. (Side Note: Using today's start as a guide, I will be re-formating the chart to contain the classification each pitch thrown is as well as the end result of a pitch)

But the real failure came when Macha left Calero in to start the ninth and after Calero ran into trouble, he called on for Rincon, not his current closer. If Macha did not want to use Duchscherer, he should have realized that if the game would require the Duke, it would be far less stressful for him to start the inning then to come in to fix a reliever's mess.

But hold on, there's more abominations; Crosby deserves kudos for his bobble of a potential double-play ball in the 12th. It's a good thing that Glynn did not flail his arms at Crosby, otherwise he would have been on the plane back to Sacramento quicker then this game was lost.

It's games like this that you wonder why hasn't Beane fired Macha. Oh that's right, Macha's his puppet...




Either Beane should:
  • have better dialogue with Macha

  • become the manager

  • create a Disney animatronic robot to tele-conference

  • or put the damn ego aside and hire Bobby Valentine

I am simply tired of the status-quo.

Tuesday, June 21, 2005

Minor League Underdogs

LHP Justin Crowder and RHP Alex Santos: one's a draftee from 2002, the other is a 3rd round pick, turned indy leaguer. Both are relievers and both are having a great start to the 05 season.

Santos is a former 3rd round pick of the Devil-Rays; drafted out of the Miami Hurricanes program as a starter, he was considered to be nothing more then a bottom-of-the-rotation starter so he was later converted into a reliever and subsequently left the Tampa organization. After he spent some time in the Independent Leagues, the A's signed him to a minor league contract for the '05 season. Unlike other Indy. Leaguers such as Nick Mattioni, Santos moved quickly through Stockton and was promoted after 19 games to Midland where he has complied some gaudy stats:

Team
W
L
G
SV
IP
H
R
ER
HR
BB
SO
ERA
WHIP
Stockton
Ports
0
0
12
7
16
8
2
1
1
2
20
0.56
0.63
Midland
RockHounds
2
0
15
7
19
10
1
1
0
4
25
0.47
0.73


A source down in Midland country gave me this scouting report on Santos:

  • 2 pitch pitcher

  • Fastball low 90's but can reach back for extra to hit mid 90's

  • Splitfinger in the low to high 80's with solid to outstanding break

  • Does not nibble; comes right after hitters, focusing on jamming them in

Crowder as drafted in the later rounds of the infamous 2002 "Moneyball" draft. During that year's college season, Baseball America felt that he was a solid college starter:

...he's got a great changeup that makes his fastball, which he throws 85-88, look like 90.


After being out for the entire 03 season with an injury to his left shoulder, he lost velocity on his fastball, so the A's converted him to a reliever in 04 and now, he is starting to take on that role:

Team
W
L
G
SV
IP
H
R
ER
HR
BB
SO
ERA
WHIP
Stockton
Ports
0
0
23
0
23
23
8
7
0
7
21
2.74
1.30


With Crowder, I have this scouting report from Stockton:

  • 85 mph fastball with ok movement

  • solid changeup

  • decent slurve

  • used mainly as a situational lefty in the 7th or 8th inning


The problem with Crowder is his WHIP, which is very likely the reason why he is still in Stockton; however, it would be nice to see if his HR/9 rate continues to stay low after facing tougher competition at higher levels.

These are just a few names to keep an eye on as the season progresses; perhaps there can be newly-discovered depth in the organization...

Monday, June 20, 2005

Know your agent


This is Greg Genske, sports agent to many clients including Kotsay, the Cubs' Scott Williamson, Todd Walker, manager Dusty Baker, D'back Shawn Green, White Sox's Orlando Hernandez, Dodger Brad Penny and many others.

According to SF Chronicle writer John Shea, the A's are trying to extend Kotsay's contract:

On the other hand, his agent, Greg Genske, is working on a possible extension and spoke Friday with A's general manager Billy Beane.

"I think they've exchanged possibilities of getting something done," said Kotsay, the leading candidate to represent the A's at the July 12 All-Star Game.

As of recently, Penny signed a three-year contract extension in the middle of the season which would give him about 8 million per season which is pretty much below market-value as Russ Ortiz?!? is making the same amount. This bodes well for the A's current efforts to re-sign Kotsay to an extension. Whether this is something that Genske is going to go along with, I turn attention to this article written last year:

What is your business philosophy on your industry segment?

Early in my career, a mentor, Brock Gowdy of Morgan Lewis, told me that the key to client service is very simple — it is providing the absolute best service to your existing client base and doing everything and anything you can to advance your client's objectives and goals.

What one can deduce, and this is something that I have gone over with Bobby, is that the A's are trying to find out whether they can retain Kotsay otherwise, otherwise they will try to deal him.

Friday, June 17, 2005

Can we get some service?

For a team that is numbers-oriented, the A's front office should have fired Macha a long time ago; of course, a betting person would have said Macha would be fired after last year's bullpen debacles but Beane kept his man for this year. And in a year where the margin for victory is razor-thin, Macha has managed to fail the team in the same crucial spot; bullpen management.

Last night, Zito was perfect through 4 innings until he had a laborious 5th inning where he walked David Bell, gave up a double to Chase Utley, and got Todd Pratt to hit into a Fielder's choice which led to Bell scoring the first run.

Fast foward to later in the game, Zito started 7th inning at 95 pitches and after a 7 pitch AB to Bobby Abreu to finish the 6th inning. Of course, there was no one to warm up in the pen at the start of the inning and then the wheels came off as the Phillies would score 3 times in the inning.

The problem here is that Macha should know that Zito is not an innings eater and that in order for him to pitch deep into games, he has to keep his pitch count low.

I have created an Excel datasheet which logs all of Zito's starts and focuses on a range from 80-117 pitches. Zito throws, on average, 108.9 pitches and has a median pitch of 94.43 in the pitch-range described above. From that median pitch, Zito has allowed a lower bound of 4 runs and an upper bound of 10 runs; this does not include the 4 runs he has been charged to as a result of a reliever allowing his runners to score.

While the sample size is somewhat low, it is better to caution on the 94 pitch count as a signal to at least have a reliever up in the bullpen in case Zito allows a runner.

This is just one instance of Macha not having a read for the game and his lack thereof costing the A's another loss.

In my opinion...



you should be served.

The Arms Race

As I am sure many are aware, the A's have been in talks with the Rockies in regards to Joe Kennedy.

Let's chronologically look at the trade parameters, first with this Denver Post article:

Colorado, however, would be seeking to fill multiple needs with a powerful bullpen arm like prospect Jairo Garcia and possibly a major-league outfielder.

The Rockies are intrigued enough by Oakland's calls that they are expected to scout the Athletics' Triple-A team in the coming days.


After the two teams furthered their discussion, the deal became 1 to 1:

A deal for Oakland minor-leaguer Jairo Garcia and Rockies pitcher Joe Kennedy sits on the table as each side mulls whether to pull the trigger.


Before Kennedy's 5 IP, 5 run stinker on Tuesday, even after 6 days of rest and a mechanic-workout/bullpen session, the Rockies began to drive up the price based on the amount of interest from other teams:

The Rockies asked for Triple-A closer Jairo Garcia, whom they continue to scout, and at least one other prospect from Oakland. Said Oakland general manager Billy Beane on Tuesday about a potential trade, "The A's are always looking for starting pitchers."


Now, in today's Rocky Mountain News, the A's have apparently pulled the deal off the table:

But Oakland does not want to take on the additional salary and has indicated it only would be interested if it could put outfielder Eric Byrnes in the deal instead of Garcia. Kennedy and Byrnes are making $2.2 million this year.



The thing to keep an eye on is whether the Rockies cave in from their initial demands of Jairo Garcia for Kennedy...

In conjunction with the Kennedy trade front, take note that the A's are going to send Juan Cruz to Triple-A to start. Macha was quoted as saying that the A's wanted to extend Cruz, however, it is not in the same way a guy like Thomas gets placed at the top of the hitting order to get more AB's; the idea here is to make Cruz a starter, period.

It should come at no shock that Cruz seems to be a mental gidget, as he has had this label attached on him since his days with the Cubs. Yesterday, he bolted out of the clubhouse in order to avoid the press, but in today's papers, they were able to get to him anyways. Among the different articles you will read today, John Suchon's article in the ANG newspapers has a very telling stat: The A's are 2-19 when Juan Cruz pitches

What I wonder is whether the A's are making him start as a way to keep him and get him in a comfortable role, or if it's to pad his numbers and rebuild trade value. This year was his first year of arbitration eligibility and while he lost his arbitration hearing, he is going to make 600-k. It is quite possible that the A's are trying to make sure that he can be dealt if need be or start to justify paying him a nice chunk of change in '06.

Of course, he may not make it in this organization; from the first day he arrived to spring-training, he had a chip on his shoulder about not starting. He talked to the media about how the A's barely communicated to him and that he was not sure about his role.

Now, to tie this in with the conquest for Kennedy, the A's are pretty well-stocked with starting pitching at the Minor League level: LHP John Rheinecker, LHP Dan Meyer, Cruz, LHP Dallas Braden, RHP Jason Windsor are the top SP prospects the A's have. If Beane is truly trying to trade for Kennedy, this raises a brow. Why would the A's want to add a LHP, especially a starter?

Either the A's are planning to stock up in preparation for a offseason move of Zito, are not comfortable with Saarloos being a starter, or they are unsure of Meyer and Rheinecker's ability to come-back from injuries.

Thursday, June 16, 2005

Site Update: Now and Later

I have finally updated the pitching log to today's, 6-16, game; I plan on adding another stat column, Batters Faced and I will start to format the file in a proper way as the the entries start to pile up. If there are any suggestions on stats that you would like to see on a per-game, per-pitcher type basis, let me know and I can add them to the log.

I am also creating some layout changes for the site in the hopes of making the blog more useful to readers. Again, if you have any suggestions, I would appreciate any feedback.

Tuesday, June 14, 2005

Watson Down, Ginter up

In today's Sacramento Bee, infielder Keith Ginter was quoted as saying that he had been called up; now, it is known that Watson is the player he is replacing.

Unless Ginter played the outfield in his Triple A stint, Scutaro is in the process of being traded, or the A's are in a holding pattern with Crosby's injured quad, this move smells like it's ego-driven. A confirmation will be determined in how many more AB's Kielty gets as a left-handed hitter; perhaps the A's made this move based on Kielty's pinch-hit against Smoltz when Watson had a sub-par day?

Thursday, June 09, 2005

Dotel's Surgery - Q and A

When Octavio Dotel decided to buck the advice of 4 doctors, including Allan Pont, James Andrews, and Lewis Yocum, and undergo Tommy-John surgery, many felt that Dotel was doing a disservice to the team. However, when the surgical procedure was complete, important details came to light which should change the minds of the maligned fan.

... In addition, Andrews took out two large calcifications.

"I'm telling you, they were big," said Dotel, who will start rehab a week from today.

...

A reason the doctors advised against surgery was that MRI exams showed that things might not go smoothly, but, Dotel said, "Once he got in there, everything was different from the MRI. When he saw that, he said I could be pitching in April."


Doctors go to school for 7 years of their lives in order to practice their profession, but even they can be wrong. They have to rely on what the data shows them and in this case, all 4 doctors felt that Dotel's MRI did not indicate a need for surgery.

Putting that aside for the moment, I would like to show you the case of Scott Williamson, the former Reds and Red Sox reliever. Earlier in his career, he had Tommy-John performed on his right elbow. Last year, he started to experience pain in said elbow and it took seven months before it was discovered that he had a serious injury. Why did it take seven months? Well, even Dr. Andrews did not know the severity of his condition.

But a third opinion conducted by renowned surgeon James Andrews advised Williamson to try rest and strengthen his elbow.


It was discovered later that Williamson indeed needed to have his Ulnar ligament replaced:

"'I couldn't believe what I saw,' said Kremchek, who is the Cincinnati Reds team physician. 'It looked like a grenade had gone off in there. The damage was far worse that the MRIs or any examination alluded to.'

As it turned out, Williamson pitched the last month of the regular season with a completely torn ulnar collateral ligament, mangled cartilage ripped from the bone on the outer part of the elbow and several bone chips and loose bodies within the cavity of the joint. Kremchek performed Tommy John surgery on the Red Sox reliever, taking a hamstring tendon from his right leg and transplanting it to the elbow to form a new UCL.

'I can't believe he was able to pitch with the elbow like that,' Kremchek said."


So just as in Williamson's case, Dotel needed to have surgery; in both situations, the pitchers were handcuffed by the injury and thus they were unable to perform to their abilities.

With that aside, let's look at a major benefit the A's can have by retaining Dotel:

Dotel said that a tendon was taken from his leg and it was so long that Andrews was able to wrap it three times around the elbow, which is unusual.


The point to notice here is that former A's reliever, Billy Koch, also had Tommy John surgery and he actually pitched with a higher velocity because of extra loops.

Like Wood, Gordon and Koch say, they throw harder than before the surgery. Koch, typically in the high-90s, has hit 108 and 103, according to various reports. But in his first season with the White Sox last season, struggled as their closer and couldn't maintain consistent velocity of his fastball.

A strengthened elbow probably helps. "Dr. Andrews said the tendon from my wrist was a lot longer than normal, so he was able to get an extra loop out of it in my elbow, making that new ligament extra thick," Koch says.


Seeing as how Dotel actually had his replacement ligament removed from his leg, it is highly likely that he will be throwing at a higher velocity then he did before this year. The A's should pounce on the opportunity to have Dotel come back for '06 and possibly '07 as a middle reliever to create a certainty in regards to Major-League talent.

Here is a description of the average schedule a recovering patient endures. Something to watch out for is that Dotel may be on an accelerated route by 3 months or so because Andrews had told him that he could be ready by Opening Day 2006.

Independent Contractors

The Independent Leagues scattered through-out the U.S. are used by MLB entities in various forms; sometimes a team tries to fill a need and plucks serviceable players, other-times, high-profile agents use the leagues as a method to keep their draft-clients fresh while they hold out for longer contracts, and there's the story of a guy trying to get back to the majors.

Every once in a while, a team can find a diamond in the rough without exposure to other MLB teams. In 2002, the Seattle Mariners had been scouting a pitcher in the Northern Leagues by the name of Bobby Madritsch. Madritsch was a former Reds Prospect who was released when he suffered a shoulder injury in 2000 and in the following year, he caught on with the independent leagues. Bobby had agreed to a contract with the Mariners that would allow him to continue to pitch in the league as he was taking his team to the league championships and he did not want to abandon his friends. However, a rival club in the league decided that they should try to drum up interest in the pitcher so that they could win the championship; so the team called the A's and told them about this lefty who has broken the league's single-season strikeout record. The A's offered Bobby an instant promotion to Double A Midland and more money then Seattle but Madritsch kept his word to the Mariners.

Until he hurt his shoulder earlier this season, Madritsch was going to work off a solid 2004 and the Mariners would have reaped the reward of getting a 3rd starter for practically nothing. On May 24th, the A's purchased RHP Keith Dunn from the Northeastern league and assigned him to Single-A Stockton. Dunn is a former Yankee farmhand who was drafted by them in the '97 draft and pitched with them until 2001, where he latched on with the Quebec Capitales.

While Dunn may be nothing more then rotation filler for a suddenly-depleted minor league system, the question becomes how successful can pitchers from the Independent Leagues be in the Minor/Major Leagues? Here are some statistics from players who have pitched in the Independent Leagues and the A's have been interested in or acquired(thanks to Toby Boyce of Independent Thinking):

Keith Dunn
YearTeamLgAgeLvlGGSCGSHOSVIPHRERHRBBSOWPWHIPERA
2002QuebecNeast23Ind-----------82---
2003QuebecNeast24Ind1919320121.211542395307121.192.90
2004QuebecNeast25Ind1817100120.2130524112268831.293.07
2005StocktonCal26A2200011.0843037-1.002.45
Nick
Brannon
YearTeamLgAgeLvlGGSCGSHOSVIPHRERHRBBSOWPWHIPERA
2004Fargo-MoorheadNthern26Ind19000023.1181060152321.432.34
2004MidlandTexas26AA10300015.210662121711.453.55
2005MidlandTexas27AA16100024.11514932321-1.583.36
Evan
Fahner
YearTeamLgAgeLvlGGSCGSHOSVIPHRERHRBBSOWPWHIPERA
2003SchaumburgNorthern25Ind17000625.01000043640.560.00
2004West
Tenn.
Southern26AA58000077.07035296348511.353.39
2005MidlandTexas27AA21000337.0381413317341.493.16
Bobby
Madritsch
YearTeamLgAgeLvlGGSCGSHOSVIPHRERHRBBSOWPWHIPERA
2001ChicoTX-LA25Ind500-07.0141210-612-2.8611.74
2001San
Angelo
TX-LA25Ind331-026.01485-627-0.771.73
2001Rio
Grande
TX-LA25Ind1093-060.0552521-3458-1.483.15
2002WinnipegNthern26Ind1918200125.194353263615341.042.30
2003San
Antonio
Texas27AA27272101581337564116715451.263.63
2004TacomaPCL28AAA121200062.16133263265331.403.75
2004SeattleMLB28MLB151110088.07433323336021.223.27
Nick
Mattioni
YearTeamLgAgeLvlGGSCGSHOSVIPHRERHRBBSOWPWHIPERA
2004Fargo-MoorheadNthern25Ind24000633.01766073200.731.64
2004MidlandTexas25AA19000330.22412103171511.362.93
2005MidlandTexas26AA11000122.113431523-0.811.22
2005SacramentoPCL26AAA700008.2131211473-2.4412.07
Brad
Zieglar
YearTeamLgAgeLvlGGSCGSHOSVIPHRERHRBBSOWPWHIPERA
2004SchaumburgNorthern24Ind4410024.01254012600.541.50
2004ModestoCal24A161500092.194514011227701.263.91
2005StocktonCal25A121200065.290474241065-1.535.80


As you can see, the WHIP's of all Independent Leaguers went up once they entered the Minors; this could be attributed to higher competition. It will be interesting to note if there are any more selections from the Independent Leagues to develop a pattern of what the A's look for in their pitchers.

A's after Kennedy

Last week, the A's were mentioned in a Peter Gammons article about trading for Colorado starting lefty Joe Kennedy. Well after a few days, the rumor is heating up; in today's Denver Post, the A's have been so persistent that the Rockies are going to send scouts to watch the Rivercats.

Colorado, however, would be seeking to fill multiple needs with a powerful bullpen arm like prospect Jairo Garcia and possibly a major-league outfielder.


The problem I have is that Kennedy is nowhere near worth Garcia at this point so a Byrnes for Kennedy trade has to be the avenue the A's take. Seeing as how the Rockies have a statistical devotion towards sinkerballers, the Nationals need for power in their lineup, the A's should try to do a three-way where Day goes to the Rockies, Byrnes to the Nationals, and Kennedy to the A's.

Tuesday, June 07, 2005

Update

I apologize to readers for the lack of current posts but this last week has been hectic culiminating in me having my wisdom teeth removed today. I hope to get back on track as far as the pitching log, which may shed some light on whether we should be bothered with Zito's usage, and the contracts as well as a post I have had shelved for a bit on independent leaguers.

Saturday, June 04, 2005

The start of the breakdown

The A's may have tried to make a statement with the promotion of Ryan Glynn directly into the starting rotation but the problem here is that Glynn is only replacing Etherton who is replacing the injured Rich Harden and his spot in the rotation.

Glynn certainly deserves another start but mainly for the A's to see if the perennial "Great arm - great stuff" but no results pitcher has indeed turned the corner this late in his career. And seeing as how Harden's recovery period has been stretched back to the same time period as Hudson in 2004, the A's have the ability to check out lefty Mario Ramos who is currently returning to the "Mulder the Second" form that he displayed before being traded to the Texas Rangers.

It's too bad that Rheinecker is out because it would have been nice to see if his exemplary season could translate to the Majors much like the A's will be able to determine with Glynn's next start.

Of course, the A's options outside the organization are never limited and our good friend Peter Gammons is reporting that the A's are looking at Colorado's Joe Kennedy.