Friday, June 17, 2005

Can we get some service?

For a team that is numbers-oriented, the A's front office should have fired Macha a long time ago; of course, a betting person would have said Macha would be fired after last year's bullpen debacles but Beane kept his man for this year. And in a year where the margin for victory is razor-thin, Macha has managed to fail the team in the same crucial spot; bullpen management.

Last night, Zito was perfect through 4 innings until he had a laborious 5th inning where he walked David Bell, gave up a double to Chase Utley, and got Todd Pratt to hit into a Fielder's choice which led to Bell scoring the first run.

Fast foward to later in the game, Zito started 7th inning at 95 pitches and after a 7 pitch AB to Bobby Abreu to finish the 6th inning. Of course, there was no one to warm up in the pen at the start of the inning and then the wheels came off as the Phillies would score 3 times in the inning.

The problem here is that Macha should know that Zito is not an innings eater and that in order for him to pitch deep into games, he has to keep his pitch count low.

I have created an Excel datasheet which logs all of Zito's starts and focuses on a range from 80-117 pitches. Zito throws, on average, 108.9 pitches and has a median pitch of 94.43 in the pitch-range described above. From that median pitch, Zito has allowed a lower bound of 4 runs and an upper bound of 10 runs; this does not include the 4 runs he has been charged to as a result of a reliever allowing his runners to score.

While the sample size is somewhat low, it is better to caution on the 94 pitch count as a signal to at least have a reliever up in the bullpen in case Zito allows a runner.

This is just one instance of Macha not having a read for the game and his lack thereof costing the A's another loss.

In my opinion...



you should be served.